The abrupt surge in fossil fuel prices, triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, serves as a reality check on our global energy vulnerabilities.

This situation invites us to delve deeper into the profound implications of our energy choices. It is a stark reminder that our energy security is not just about the immediate availability of resources, but also about the resilience of our systems in the face of geopolitical uncertainties. Had Europe made more substantial investments in energy efficiency and the development of low-carbon renewable electricity generation, our economies would not have been left so exposed to the whims of Putin's gas policies.

Let this serve as a clarion call. We need to do more to prepare for the next crisis on the horizon – climate breakdown.

It's now time for a sobering reality check – humanity is faltering. Our political system and neoliberal economics are steering us towards the precipice of societal instability, all while our media blinds us to the costly and deadly consequences. If left unchecked and without serious, collective emergency action, then runaway irreversible climate breakdown within this or the next generation is a stark reality we must confront.

Climate breakdown is accelerating, and the past year has seen an unprecedented number of climate-related events worldwide. Catastrophic floods in Pakistan displaced 8 million people. Droughts in the Horn of Africa have put tens of millions at risk of food shortages. A UN report linked 43,000 deaths in Somalia to famine, half of which were children. The "megadrought," a period of extreme dryness lasting decades, is decimating crops across Western America. Extreme wildfires have ravaged North America, Argentina, and Russia.

In the same year the war in Ukraine escalated, Europe experienced its worst drought in 500 years. Major rivers ran dry, the Rhine became unnavigable in places, forcing ships to sail with only 25% of their cargo. Crop failures followed, nuclear plants shut down, and hellish wildfires spread across the continent. 2023 has been marked by biblical rains. In Northern Italy, flooding forced the cancellation of the F1 Grand Prix. Crop failures across the Iberian Peninsula due to the driest climate in 1,200 years, and with 'El Nino' looming, further records are set to be shattered.

March 2023 the UN Secretary General António Guterres described the sixth "synthesis report" from the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as "a survival guide for humanity". He urged developed countries to commit to reaching net zero emissions by the earlier date of around 2040.

Guterres issued his starkest warning that the "climate time bomb is ticking" and "the rate of temperature rise in the last half century is the highest in 2,000 years," he said. "Concentrations of carbon dioxide are at their highest in at least 2 million years".

With record temperatures in Europe and around the world, an average global warming of 1.2C and approximately 2C in Europe, we can no longer gamble with the future of the planet.

Current climate pledges from the latest COP27 will push the dial further to 2.8C if, and it's a big if, we meet our pledges!

Add in the geopolitical situation of petrostates controlling the flow of existing fossil fuel energy, now is the time to introduce rapid decarbonisation as a matter of energy security, political security, food security, and a future liveable planet.

The European Green Deal, agreed by the EU in 2020, aims to reduce GHG by at least 55% from 1990 levels by 2030 and achieve climate neutrality by 2050. These targets now seem outdated in light of the latest climate science, and current policies from member states look set to reduce emissions by just 36%-47%.

Ukraine as the Renewable Energy Powerhouse of Europe

In his address to the Ukraine Recovery conference on June 21, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy articulated a compelling vision of Ukraine as a "hub for modern green energy" within Europe.

Ukraine's strategic location at Europe's crossroads and its shared borders with numerous EU nations make it an optimal hub for energy distribution.

It has a well-developed energy infrastructure due to its history as a major energy supplier, particularly of natural gas. This existing infrastructure can be modified or expanded to accommodate the production and distribution of renewable energy which could be exported to Europe through the Romanian interconnector and the newly established Ukrainian-Polish energy bridge, among other routes.

Ukraine boasts considerable potential for solar power, particularly in its southern regions, and wind power along its extensive coastline and expansive plains. It also has considerable biomass potential due to its large agricultural sector.

When Ukraine joins the EU, it will possess the largest land mass of any member state. This land could be utilized for biomass, wind, and solar energy, with estimates suggesting a generation capacity of between 667 GW to 874 GW, well over ten times the current capacity of 60 GW.

Biomass already constitutes 20% of the EU's renewable energy mix, and Ukraine's robust agricultural sector could enhance this with existing crops such as grain and rapeseed.

Research has demonstrated that biomass technology is far from being carbon neutral. Any forthcoming utilisation of biomass must incorporate carbon sequestration – a process known as biomass carbon capture and storage. The ecological restoration of Ukraine presents an ideal opportunity to refine these emerging technologies, thereby ensuring that biomass and biofuels are produced with environmental sustainability at the forefront.

By employing agrisolar techniques, land allocated for solar energy can also be used for crop cultivation, with solar panels suspended above the fields. While further research and rigorous trials are necessary, Ukraine's vast size makes it an ideal testing ground.

In the past year, Ukraine has constructed more onshore wind power plants than England, demonstrating that sheer determination can lead to significant progress. Ukraine's extensive wind-swept lands could contribute an additional 320 GW of onshore wind and a further 251 GW offshore in the Black Sea. Add another 60 GW of solar then it's easy to see the potential of a great green recovery for Ukraine.

The reconstruction of destroyed housing stock provides Ukraine with an opportunity to construct state-of-the-art, energy-efficient buildings to the highest sustainability standards. With the European Investment Bank (EIB) recently approving the EU for Ukraine Initiative, a new scheme to finance reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine, Europe now has a golden opportunity to use Ukraine as a testing ground for the most advanced and emerging environmental technologies. This will aid in rebuilding the country and ensuring long-term energy security for the EU and other European nations.

The culmination of these efforts will transform Ukraine into a shining beacon of sustainability. This unique scenario offers Europe, and indeed the entire world, an unprecedented window to observe, learn and understand the systemic transformations required to create a truly climate-resilient society and reach net-zero carbon emissions. As Ukraine demonstrates the practical applications of advanced environmental technologies, it will provide a roadmap for global climate resilience, signifying the necessary adjustments for other countries to emulate in their journey towards achieving sustainability goals.

Energy Storage

Fossil fuels, until their combustion, serve as highly compact energy storage units. While hydro and geothermal energy can be stored, they are site-specific and have limited capacity (keep an eye out for advancements in deep geothermal).

Improving energy storage technologies can mitigate the intermittent nature of renewable energy. During periods of excess production, the energy is stored and used later. The development of various storage methods, such as salt water, lithium, molten sands, pumped hydro, and spinning and weighted batteries, is essential.

Energy storage is becoming more affordable due to the rapidly falling costs of lithium-ion batteries, making them more competitive with traditional grid infrastructure. However, these batteries face challenges related to raw material availability, risk of overheating, flammability, and environmental impact. Alternatives, like solid-state batteries with higher energy density and safety, redox flow batteries offering scalability and longer cycle life, and sodium-ion batteries which use abundant and cheaper sodium ions, are gaining attention. Energy Storage as a Service (ESaaS) is emerging, where providers install and operate energy storage systems, allowing customers to enjoy benefits without the costs and maintenance of ownership. As technology improves and costs decline, energy storage will increasingly support a more sustainable, resilient energy system.

Conclusion

We cannot afford to let aggressive, repressive petrostates wield energy as a weapon of geopolitical blackmail. Decarbonisation is the only solution to end our dependency on imported fossil fuels and to slow climate change.

The current crisis underscores the importance of fully decarbonising and diversifying our energy sources, not just for economic reasons, but also for the sake of our planet's health. It is a wake-up call to Europe and the world that we need to rethink our energy strategies. We need to understand that our reliance on fossil fuels is not just a matter of economic convenience, but a choice that has far-reaching implications for our environment, our political stability, and our future generations. The price shock is not just a temporary inconvenience, but a symptom of a deeper, systemic issue that we need to address.

We must come to terms with the fact that our present Net Zero targets are not aligned with the most recent scientific findings. A swift and comprehensive emergency decarbonisation plan is not just a necessity, but an urgent priority that demands immediate action.

The implementation of such a plan will not only serve as a catalyst for the creation of millions of high-quality jobs, but it will also stimulate economic growth. Moreover, it will foster a more habitable environment, one that is not just sustainable, but also conducive to the health and well-being of all its inhabitants.

As we stand on the precipice of change, we must remember that our actions today will echo into the future. The choices we make now will shape the world that our children and grandchildren will inherit. Therefore, we must act not just for ourselves, but for the generations yet to come. In this endeavour, we are not merely preserving our future; we are actively creating it. The urgency of now is a call to action, a call to responsibility, and a call to envision a world where economic growth and environmental sustainability are not at odds, but are two sides of the same coin. This is our challenge, and this is our opportunity. Let us seize it with both hands, for the sake of our planet, and for the legacy we leave behind.